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UK AI-exposure analysis stack: exposure crosswalk, occupation targets, exposure imputation, and ESRI-style AI shock scenarios #325

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UK AI-exposure analysis stack: exposure crosswalk, occupation targets, exposure imputation, and ESRI-style AI shock scenarios #325

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05e9c95
Add UK occupation and age employment calibration targets from ONS ASH…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
277d011
Add ESRI-style AI adoption shock scenarios for UK person microdata
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
2c97cfe
Add UK AI-exposure imputation stage (LFS/APS donor -> FRS persons)
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
04490bc
Add UK SOC2020 AI-exposure crosswalk and lookup module
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
5ae6d68
Merge branch 'feature/ai-exposure-crosswalk' into feature/uk-ai-expos…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
78d1bc3
Merge branch 'feature/uk-occupation-calibration-targets' into feature…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
96393b5
Merge branch 'feature/occupation-exposure-imputation' into feature/uk…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
c934156
Merge branch 'feature/ai-shock-scenarios' into feature/uk-ai-exposure…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
6ec6461
Move occupation-target tidy CSVs out of the spec-only uk country package
vahid-ahmadi Jul 6, 2026
3b72a3e
Address review: citations, age-band reconciliation, seam/vintage fixe…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 10, 2026
27c6ae3
Merge origin/main into feature/uk-ai-exposure-analysis (resolve uk_ru…
vahid-ahmadi Jul 10, 2026
3794c81
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into pr325-polish
MaxGhenis Aug 4, 2026
5f124a7
Fix FRS person-ID composite to SERNUM*1000+PERSON; guard zero-match j…
MaxGhenis Aug 4, 2026
0f7d7bf
Enforce donor/target soc_major_group coding agreement in exposure imp…
MaxGhenis Aug 4, 2026
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102 changes: 88 additions & 14 deletions packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/uk_runtime/__init__.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,5 +1,34 @@
"""UK build helpers for Populace-owned local-geography artifacts."""

from populace.build.uk_runtime.ai_exposure import (
MEASURE_TO_COLUMN,
exposure_for_major_group,
exposure_for_soc,
load_ai_exposure_table,
load_major_group_ai_exposure_table,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.ai_shock_scenarios import (
PRESETS as AI_SHOCK_PRESETS,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.ai_shock_scenarios import (
ShockScenario,
apply_capital_shock,
apply_employment_shock,
apply_wage_shock,
run_scenario,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.exposure_imputation import (
DEFAULT_EXPOSURE_COLUMN,
DEFAULT_PREDICTORS,
LFS_APS_EXPOSURE_DONOR,
SOC_MAJOR_GROUP_COLUMN,
UK_EXPOSURE_IMPUTATION_STAGE_NAME,
attach_exposure,
exposure_from_major_group,
exposure_imputation_stage,
fit_exposure_imputer,
impute_exposure,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.firm_generation import (
EMPLOYMENT_BANDS,
HMRC_BAND_COLUMNS,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -115,6 +144,19 @@
metric_names_from_target_profile,
metric_tables_by_area_group,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.occupation_targets import (
APS_NOMIS_SOURCE,
ASHE_TABLE14_SOURCE,
PACKAGED_APS_AGE_CSV,
PACKAGED_APS_OCCUPATION_CSV,
PACKAGED_ASHE_TABLE14_CSV,
OccupationTargetBuild,
SkippedTargetRow,
aps_age_band_employment_targets,
aps_occupation_employment_targets,
ashe_occupation_employment_targets,
packaged_occupation_csv_path,
)
from populace.build.uk_runtime.rowwise_dataset import (
BENUNIT_ID_COLUMNS,
HOUSEHOLD_ID_COLUMNS,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -160,14 +202,19 @@

__all__ = [
"AGE_BANDS",
"AREA_TYPE_TO_LEDGER_GEOGRAPHY_LEVEL",
"AI_SHOCK_PRESETS",
"APS_NOMIS_SOURCE",
"AREA_TYPES",
"AREA_TYPE_TO_CROSSWALK_COLUMN",
"AREA_TYPE_TO_LEDGER_GEOGRAPHY_LEVEL",
"ASHE_TABLE14_SOURCE",
"AxiomVATRuleEvaluator",
"BASE_FRS_SUPPORT_CHANNEL",
"BENUNIT_ID_COLUMNS",
"COUNTRY_TO_REGION",
"CROSSWALK_COLUMNS",
"DEFAULT_EXPOSURE_COLUMN",
"DEFAULT_PREDICTORS",
"DEFAULT_SPI_SUPPORT_HOUSEHOLDS",
"EMPLOYMENT_BANDS",
"ENGLAND_LAD_REGION_URL",
Expand All @@ -176,21 +223,27 @@
"EW_OA_HIERARCHY_URL",
"EW_OA_LAD23_URL",
"EW_OA_POPULATION_URL",
"FRS_REGION_TO_COUNTRY",
"FRS_REGION_TO_REGION_CODE",
"FRS_ONLY_SPI_FILL_PERSON_COLUMNS",
"FRS_ONLY_SPI_FILL_PREDICTOR_COLUMNS",
"HOUSEHOLD_IS_SPI_SYNTHETIC_COLUMN",
"HOUSEHOLD_ID_COLUMNS",
"FRS_REGION_TO_COUNTRY",
"FRS_REGION_TO_REGION_CODE",
"HMRC_BAND_COLUMNS",
"INPUT_FILES",
"HOUSEHOLD_ID_COLUMNS",
"HOUSEHOLD_IS_SPI_SYNTHETIC_COLUMN",
"INCOME_VARIABLES",
"INPUT_FILES",
"LA_EXTRA_METRICS",
"LFS_APS_EXPOSURE_DONOR",
"LONG_GEOGRAPHY_COLUMNS",
"MEASURE_TO_COLUMN",
"MAX_UNMATCHED_ACTIVE_NI_POSTCODE_SHARE",
"NI_DZ2021_COUNT",
"NI_DZ_GEOJSON_ZIP_URL",
"NI_DZ_POPULATION_CSV_URL",
"OccupationTargetBuild",
"PACKAGED_APS_AGE_CSV",
"PACKAGED_APS_OCCUPATION_CSV",
"PACKAGED_ASHE_TABLE14_CSV",
"PERSON_ID_COLUMNS",
"ROWWISE_GEOGRAPHY_COLUMNS",
"RowwiseGeographyAssignment",
Expand All @@ -201,11 +254,12 @@
"SCOTLAND_OA_POPULATION_URL",
"SPI_INCOME_COMPONENT_COLUMNS",
"SPI_INCOME_IMPUTATION_COLUMNS",
"SOC_MAJOR_GROUP_COLUMN",
"SPI_SYNTHETIC_SUPPORT_CHANNEL",
"ShockScenario",
"SkippedTargetRow",
"StackedLocalMatrix",
"StackedLocalSolveResult",
"UK_POSTCODE_OA_MAY25_ZIP_URL",
"UK_POSTCODE_PCON_MAY24_ZIP_URL",
"UKFirmCalibrationResult",
"UKFirmGenerationConfig",
"UKFirmGenerationResult",
Expand All @@ -216,22 +270,32 @@
"UKLocalCandidateResult",
"UKRowwiseDatasetResult",
"UKSPISupportResult",
"UK_EXPOSURE_IMPUTATION_STAGE_NAME",
"UK_POSTCODE_OA_MAY25_ZIP_URL",
"UK_POSTCODE_PCON_MAY24_ZIP_URL",
"UK_SINGLE_YEAR_TABLES",
"UK_SPI_SUPPORT_STAGE_NAME",
"VAT_LIABILITY_BANDS",
"VINTAGES",
"align_area_targets",
"area_support_summary",
"apply_capital_shock",
"apply_employment_shock",
"apply_wage_shock",
"aps_age_band_employment_targets",
"aps_occupation_employment_targets",
"area_groups_from_codes",
"area_support_summary",
"ashe_occupation_employment_targets",
"assign_employment",
"assign_household_geography",
"assign_vat_flags",
"build_firm_target_matrix",
"build_local_candidate",
"build_local_candidate_from_dataset",
"attach_exposure",
"build_complete_uk_geography_crosswalk",
"build_england_wales_crosswalk",
"build_firm_target_matrix",
"build_great_britain_crosswalk",
"build_local_candidate",
"build_local_candidate_from_dataset",
"build_metric_tables_from_dataset",
"build_northern_ireland_crosswalk",
"build_official_uk_geography_crosswalk",
Expand All @@ -243,39 +307,49 @@
"compute_household_metrics",
"create_uk_spi_support_tables",
"employment_band_name",
"exposure_for_major_group",
"exposure_for_soc",
"exposure_from_major_group",
"exposure_imputation_stage",
"fill_support_channel_from_source",
"fit_exposure_imputer",
"generate_base_firms",
"generate_input_values",
"generate_uk_firm_population",
"geography_coverage_summary",
"hmrc_band_name",
"id_multiplier_for_values",
"impute_exposure",
"infer_ni_dz_constituencies_from_postcodes",
"load_england_lad_region_lookup",
"load_england_wales_oa_constituencies",
"load_england_wales_oa_hierarchy",
"load_england_wales_oa_population",
"load_ew_oa_lad23_lookup",
"load_ai_exposure_table",
"load_major_group_ai_exposure_table",
"load_metric_tables",
"load_ni_dz_hierarchy",
"load_ni_dz_population",
"load_scotland_oa_constituencies",
"load_scotland_oa_dz_iz_lookup",
"load_scotland_oa_lau_lookup",
"load_scotland_oa_population",
"load_uk_dataset",
"load_uk_postcode_constituency_lookup",
"load_uk_postcode_oa_lookup",
"load_uk_dataset",
"map_to_hmrc_band_indices",
"metric_names",
"metric_names_from_target_profile",
"metric_tables_by_area_group",
"optimize_firm_weights",
"packaged_occupation_csv_path",
"prepare_area_frame",
"prepare_geography_crosswalk",
"prepare_household_frame",
"read_local_table",
"read_uk_firm_source_data",
"run_scenario",
"set_simulation_area_group",
"solve_firm_weights",
"solve_stacked_local_weights",
Expand All @@ -290,9 +364,9 @@
"uk_firm_source_data_from_frames",
"uk_firm_source_data_from_ledger_facts",
"update_england_wales_lad_codes",
"validate_geography_coverage",
"validate_uk_firm_population",
"validate_uk_rowwise_dataset_tables",
"validate_geography_coverage",
"write_geography_crosswalk",
"write_local_candidate_outputs",
"write_long_geography_weights",
Expand Down
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