diff --git a/MODULE.bazel.lock b/MODULE.bazel.lock
index 19eb08dcf8d39..a9373b65b1cec 100644
--- a/MODULE.bazel.lock
+++ b/MODULE.bazel.lock
@@ -352,7 +352,7 @@
   "moduleExtensions": {
     "//bazel:extensions.bzl%non_module_dependencies": {
       "general": {
-        "bzlTransitiveDigest": "yZROfZgIs0LcoLF6ANflyVgdZWDFiY86XvceRey/k1U=",
+        "bzlTransitiveDigest": "sEIE/cj3N8I1IHROjK3AdXZTTBeDOkBtEX1mgrcGJas=",
         "usagesDigest": "FEiDyZe9eAU6yEqnarZf0XMEUk+prUyYClvq1RU1J98=",
         "recordedInputs": [
           "REPO_MAPPING:,bazel_tools bazel_tools"
@@ -375,7 +375,8 @@
               "url": "https://github.com/redpanda-data/avro/archive/46fe1e36f680d75219cba46368de38321f1810ed.tar.gz",
               "patches": [
                 "@@//bazel/thirdparty:avro-snappy-includes.patch",
-                "@@//bazel/thirdparty:avro-fmt-const.patch"
+                "@@//bazel/thirdparty:avro-fmt-const.patch",
+                "@@//bazel/thirdparty:avrogen-stable-include-guard.patch"
               ],
               "patch_args": [
                 "-p1"
diff --git a/bazel/repositories.bzl b/bazel/repositories.bzl
index 5688007aaa6da..a3677afe5cf04 100644
--- a/bazel/repositories.bzl
+++ b/bazel/repositories.bzl
@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ def data_dependency():
         patches = [
             "//bazel/thirdparty:avro-snappy-includes.patch",
             "//bazel/thirdparty:avro-fmt-const.patch",
+            "//bazel/thirdparty:avrogen-stable-include-guard.patch",
         ],
         patch_args = ["-p1"],
     )
diff --git a/bazel/thirdparty/avrogen-stable-include-guard.patch b/bazel/thirdparty/avrogen-stable-include-guard.patch
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..1fa74b4b1f35f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/bazel/thirdparty/avrogen-stable-include-guard.patch
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+From: Travis Downs <travis.downs@redpanda.com>
+Subject: [PATCH] avrogencpp: use deterministic include guard
+
+The generated header's include guard was suffixed with the output of a
+`boost::mt19937` seeded from `::time(nullptr)`, which produced a different
+guard on every avrogen invocation. That made every consumer of the generated
+header (e.g. `manifest_list_avro.cc`) see a different input digest on each
+build, breaking Bazel's remote cache for the entire dependency chain even
+on byte-identical schemas.
+
+`headerFile_` is already a unique-per-output path; `makeCanonical(h, true)`
+canonicalizes it into a valid identifier ending in `_H` (from the `.h`
+extension). Dropping the random number leaves a stable, still-unique guard.
+
+Tracks CORE-16317.
+
+diff --git a/lang/c++/impl/avrogencpp.cc b/lang/c++/impl/avrogencpp.cc
+--- a/lang/c++/impl/avrogencpp.cc
++++ b/lang/c++/impl/avrogencpp.cc
+@@ -793,7 +793,7 @@
+ string CodeGen::guard() {
+     string h = headerFile_;
+     makeCanonical(h, true);
+-    return h + "_" + lexical_cast<string>(random_()) + "_H";
++    return h + "_H";
+ }
+
+ void CodeGen::generate(const ValidSchema &schema) {