diff --git a/book/marimo/notebooks/cla.py b/book/marimo/notebooks/cla.py index 4bf5c48d..80465004 100644 --- a/book/marimo/notebooks/cla.py +++ b/book/marimo/notebooks/cla.py @@ -4,6 +4,8 @@ # "marimo==0.14.13", # "numpy==2.3.0", # "plotly==6.7.0", +# "polars==1.44.1", +# "jquantstats==0.11.0", # "cvx-linalg>=0.9.3", # "cvxcla" # ] @@ -22,9 +24,15 @@ with app.setup: import marimo as mo import numpy as np + import polars as pl + from jquantstats import Data from cvxcla import CLA + # Trading days in a year, and the length of the simulated history. + PERIODS = 260 + HISTORY = 4 * PERIODS + @app.cell def _(): @@ -33,6 +41,13 @@ def _(): # The Critical Line Algorithm We compute an efficient frontier using the critical line algorithm (cla). The method was introduced by Harry M Markowitz in 1956. + + Rather than invent a mean vector and a covariance matrix out of thin air, we + simulate a return history, estimate both from it, and trace the frontier of + the estimated problem. That way every portfolio on the frontier has a + *realised* return series too, which we hand to + [jQuantStats](https://github.com/jebel-quant/jquantstats) at the bottom of + this notebook. """ ) return @@ -47,40 +62,149 @@ def _(): @app.function(hide_code=True) -def cla(n): +def business_dates(periods): + """Build a Monday-to-Friday date index of the given length.""" + calendar = pl.date_range(pl.date(2015, 1, 1), pl.date(2035, 1, 1), interval="1d", eager=True) + return calendar.filter(calendar.dt.weekday() <= 5).head(periods) + + +@app.function(hide_code=True) +def simulate(n, seed=42): + """Simulate a daily return history for n assets. + + The assets differ in their true drift and load on a handful of common + factors, so the estimated problem below has a genuinely tilted frontier + instead of one driven purely by estimation noise. + + Args: + n (int): Number of assets. + seed (int): Seed for the random generator, so the notebook is reproducible. + + Returns: + polars.DataFrame: A frame with a ``date`` column and one return column + per asset, with ``HISTORY`` rows. + """ + rng = np.random.default_rng(seed) + + # True annual drifts spread across the assets, expressed per day. + drift = np.linspace(0.02, 0.20, n) / PERIODS + # A low-rank common factor structure plus idiosyncratic noise. + k = max(2, n // 10) + exposures = rng.standard_normal((n, k)) * 0.4 + factors = rng.standard_normal((HISTORY, k)) * 0.01 + idiosyncratic = rng.standard_normal((HISTORY, n)) * 0.01 + + returns = drift + factors @ exposures.T + idiosyncratic + columns = [f"asset_{i:03d}" for i in range(n)] + return pl.DataFrame({"date": business_dates(HISTORY), **dict(zip(columns, returns.T, strict=True))}) + + +@app.function(hide_code=True) +def cla(returns): """Compute using the Critical Line Algorithm (CLA) an efficient frontier. + The mean vector and the covariance matrix are the sample estimates taken + from the simulated return history. The portfolios are long-only, capped at + 100% per name, and fully invested. + Args: - n (int): The dimension size of the mean vector, lower and upper bounds - arrays, and covariance matrix used in the computation. + returns (polars.DataFrame): Return history with a leading ``date`` column. Returns: - numpy.ndarray: The efficient frontier generated by the CLA based on the - provided parameters. + cvxcla.types.Frontier: The efficient frontier of the estimated problem. """ - mean = np.random.randn(n) - lower_bounds = np.zeros(n) - upper_bounds = np.ones(n) - - factor = np.random.randn(n, n) - covariance = factor @ factor.T - - f1 = CLA( - mean=mean, - covariance=covariance, - lower_bounds=lower_bounds, - upper_bounds=upper_bounds, - a=np.ones((1, len(mean))), + matrix = returns.drop("date").to_numpy() + n = matrix.shape[1] + + return CLA( + mean=matrix.mean(axis=0), + covariance=np.cov(matrix, rowvar=False), + lower_bounds=np.zeros(n), + upper_bounds=np.ones(n), + a=np.ones((1, n)), b=np.ones(1), ).frontier - return f1 @app.cell def _(slider): - frontier = cla(slider.value) - frontier.interpolate(2).plot(volatility=True, markers=True) - frontier.plot() + returns = simulate(slider.value) + frontier = cla(returns) + mo.md(f"The frontier of the estimated problem has **{len(frontier)}** turning points.") + return frontier, returns + + +@app.cell +def _(frontier): + frontier.plot(volatility=True, markers=True) + return + + +@app.cell +def _(): + mo.md( + r""" + ## From weights to a track record + + The frontier is a set of weight vectors. Applied to the return history they + generated, each one becomes a return series, and a return series is what + jQuantStats analyses. We look at three portfolios: the maximum-Sharpe point + on the frontier, the minimum-variance point, and equal weight as a + reference. + + These are *in-sample* numbers -- the same history produced the estimates the + optimiser used -- so read the table as a description of the frontier, not as + a backtest. `experiments/frontier_stats.py` runs the out-of-sample version + on real S&P 500 data. + """ + ) + return + + +@app.function(hide_code=True) +def track_records(frontier, returns): + """Turn frontier portfolios into a jQuantStats `Data` object. + + Args: + frontier (cvxcla.types.Frontier): The traced efficient frontier. + returns (polars.DataFrame): The return history the frontier was estimated on. + + Returns: + jquantstats.Data: The realised return series of the maximum-Sharpe, the + minimum-variance and the equal-weight portfolio. + """ + matrix = returns.drop("date").to_numpy() + n = matrix.shape[1] + + _, max_sharpe = frontier.max_sharpe + # Frontier order runs from maximum return towards minimum variance, but read + # the minimiser off the variance vector rather than relying on that order. + min_variance = frontier.weights[int(np.argmin(frontier.variance))] + + portfolios = { + "max_sharpe": max_sharpe, + "min_variance": min_variance, + "equal_weight": np.full(n, 1.0 / n), + } + series = {name: matrix @ weights for name, weights in portfolios.items()} + return Data.from_returns(pl.DataFrame({"date": returns["date"], **series})) + + +@app.cell +def _(frontier, returns): + data = track_records(frontier, returns) + return (data,) + + +@app.cell +def _(data): + mo.ui.table(data.stats.summary(), selection=None) + return + + +@app.cell +def _(data): + data.plots.returns(title="Cumulative return of three frontier portfolios") return diff --git a/book/marimo/notebooks/factor.py b/book/marimo/notebooks/factor.py index 0fd8fec1..5fb70f29 100644 --- a/book/marimo/notebooks/factor.py +++ b/book/marimo/notebooks/factor.py @@ -4,6 +4,8 @@ # "marimo==0.14.13", # "numpy==2.3.0", # "plotly==6.7.0", +# "polars==1.44.1", +# "jquantstats==0.11.0", # "cvx-linalg>=0.9.3", # "cvxcla" # ] @@ -22,6 +24,8 @@ with app.setup: import marimo as mo import numpy as np + import polars as pl + from jquantstats import Data from cvxcla import CLA, FactorCovariance @@ -42,6 +46,9 @@ def _(): which is exactly what `FactorCovariance` solves via the Woodbury identity in $O(nk)$ memory. 4. Hand it to `CLA` and plot the frontier. + 5. Check the operator against the data: the volatility the Woodbury + quadratic form predicts for a frontier portfolio has to equal the + volatility its realised return series actually shows. """ ) return @@ -94,7 +101,7 @@ def _(n_slider): returns = simulate_returns(rng, t=2 * n, n=n) covariance = clip_covariance(returns) mo.md(f"Kept **{covariance.k}** factors out of {n} sample eigenvalues.") - return covariance, n, rng + return covariance, n, returns, rng @app.cell @@ -117,5 +124,88 @@ def _(frontier): return +@app.cell +def _(): + mo.md( + r""" + ## Does the operator agree with the data? + + `FactorCovariance` never forms the $n \times n$ matrix, so the volatilities + plotted above come out of the Woodbury identity rather than a dense + quadratic form. That is worth checking against the returns themselves. + + Below, each frontier portfolio is applied to the simulated history to give a + realised return series, which + [jQuantStats](https://github.com/jebel-quant/jquantstats) measures. The + predicted column is $\sqrt{w^\top \Sigma w}$ from the operator; the + realised column is the sample standard deviation of the series, and their + ratio sits within a few percent of 1 across the whole slider range. Not + exactly 1: clipping deliberately discards the part of the sample spectrum + it calls noise, so the cleaned $\Sigma$ is *not* the sample covariance of + this history. A few percent is that discarded noise. An order-of-magnitude + gap, or one that widened with $n$, would instead point at the low-rank + solve. + + Risk is all we ask of this table. The means fed to the CLA are a synthetic + forecast unrelated to the simulation, and `simulate_returns` draws from a + standard normal rather than at a realistic return magnitude, so the + return-, Sharpe- and drawdown-based metrics jQuantStats also offers would + be measuring the simulation's conventions rather than the frontier. + `experiments/frontier_stats.py` reads those metrics off real S&P 500 data + instead. + """ + ) + return + + +@app.function(hide_code=True) +def score(frontier, returns): + """Compare each portfolio's predicted volatility with its realised one. + + Args: + frontier (cvxcla.types.Frontier): The traced efficient frontier. + returns (numpy.ndarray): The t x n simulated return history. + + Returns: + polars.DataFrame: One row per portfolio with the volatility the + covariance operator predicts, the volatility jQuantStats measures on + the realised series, and their ratio. + """ + t, n = returns.shape + # Frontier order runs from maximum return towards minimum variance, but read + # the minimiser off the variance vector rather than relying on that order. + min_variance = frontier.weights[int(np.argmin(frontier.variance))] + portfolios = { + "max_sharpe": frontier.max_sharpe[1], + "min_variance": min_variance, + "equal_weight": np.full(n, 1.0 / n), + } + + calendar = pl.date_range(pl.date(2015, 1, 1), pl.date(2045, 1, 1), interval="1d", eager=True) + dates = calendar.filter(calendar.dt.weekday() <= 5).head(t) + series = {name: returns @ weights for name, weights in portfolios.items()} + data = Data.from_returns(pl.DataFrame({"date": dates, **series})) + + # Per-observation volatility, so it is comparable with the frontier's own: + # the simulation carries no annualisation convention. + realised = data.stats.volatility(annualize=False) + # The Woodbury operator's own quadratic form -- no dense matrix is formed. + predicted = {name: float(np.sqrt(w @ frontier.covariance.matvec(w))) for name, w in portfolios.items()} + return pl.DataFrame( + { + "portfolio": list(portfolios), + "predicted volatility": [predicted[name] for name in portfolios], + "realised volatility": [realised[name] for name in portfolios], + "ratio": [realised[name] / predicted[name] for name in portfolios], + } + ) + + +@app.cell +def _(frontier, returns): + mo.ui.table(score(frontier, returns), selection=None) + return + + if __name__ == "__main__": app.run() diff --git a/experiments/frontier_stats.py b/experiments/frontier_stats.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..cbafab67 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/frontier_stats.py @@ -0,0 +1,119 @@ +"""Score CLA frontier portfolios out-of-sample with jQuantStats. + +The CLA reports what a portfolio is *expected* to do: `Frontier` exposes the +expected return, volatility and Sharpe ratio implied by the mean/covariance it +was handed. This experiment closes the loop and asks what those portfolios +actually *did*, on data the optimiser never saw. + + 1. Split the committed S&P 500 return snapshot in half by time. + 2. Estimate the mean and the sample covariance on the first half only. + 3. Trace the long-only, fully-invested frontier with the CLA. + 4. Pick two portfolios off it -- the maximum-Sharpe one (exact, via + ``Frontier.max_sharpe``) and the minimum-variance turning point -- and + hold both fixed through the second half. + 5. Hand the three realised daily return series (the two frontier portfolios + plus an equal-weight benchmark) to ``jquantstats`` and print its report. + +The point is the contrast between the two blocks of output: the expected +figures come from ``cvxcla``, the realised ones from ``jquantstats``, and the +gap between them is estimation error, not a defect in either library. + +The return matrix is the frozen snapshot at +``experiments/data/sp500_pct_returns.parquet``, so this reproduces offline; +``experiments/fetch_sp500.py`` is only for refreshing that snapshot. + +Usage: + uv run python experiments/frontier_stats.py [--assets 100] +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np +import polars as pl +from jquantstats import Data + +from cvxcla import CLA + +DATA = Path(__file__).parent / "data" / "sp500_pct_returns.parquet" +DATE_COL = "Date" +TRADING_DAYS = 260 + + +def load(assets: int) -> pl.DataFrame: + """Read the snapshot and keep the date column plus the first ``assets`` names.""" + frame = pl.read_parquet(DATA) + names = [c for c in frame.columns if c != DATE_COL][:assets] + return frame.select([DATE_COL, *names]).sort(DATE_COL) + + +def frontier_portfolios(train: pl.DataFrame) -> dict[str, np.ndarray]: + """Trace the frontier on the training window and pick portfolios off it. + + Returns the maximum-Sharpe and minimum-variance weight vectors, plus an + equal-weight benchmark, keyed by the column name they get in the report. + """ + matrix = train.drop(DATE_COL).to_numpy() + mean = matrix.mean(axis=0) + covariance = np.cov(matrix, rowvar=False) + n = mean.size + + frontier = CLA.problem(mean=mean, covariance=covariance).long_only().budget().trace().frontier + print(f"assets : {n}") + print(f"turning points : {len(frontier)}") + + _, w_sharpe = frontier.max_sharpe + # Frontier order runs from maximum return towards minimum variance, but read + # the minimiser off the variance vector rather than relying on that order. + w_minvar = frontier.weights[int(np.argmin(frontier.variance))] + + portfolios = {"max_sharpe": w_sharpe, "min_variance": w_minvar, "equal_weight": np.full(n, 1.0 / n)} + for name, weights in portfolios.items(): + # Annualise the daily estimates so they are comparable with the + # annualised figures jquantstats reports for the test window. + expected = float(mean @ weights) * TRADING_DAYS + volatility = float(np.sqrt(weights @ covariance @ weights)) * np.sqrt(TRADING_DAYS) + print( + f"{name:<24}: return {expected:7.2%} volatility {volatility:6.2%} " + f"Sharpe {expected / volatility:5.2f} names held {int(np.sum(weights > 1e-8)):3d}" + ) + return portfolios + + +def realised(test: pl.DataFrame, portfolios: dict[str, np.ndarray]) -> Data: + """Build the jQuantStats view of the buy-and-hold return series. + + Each portfolio is held fixed over the test window, so its realised return + on a given day is the weighted average of that day's asset returns. + """ + matrix = test.drop(DATE_COL).to_numpy() + frame = pl.DataFrame({DATE_COL: test[DATE_COL], **{name: matrix @ w for name, w in portfolios.items()}}) + return Data.from_returns(frame, date_col=DATE_COL) + + +def main() -> None: + """Fit on the first half of the snapshot, report the second half.""" + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Score CLA frontier portfolios with jQuantStats.") + parser.add_argument("--assets", type=int, default=100, help="number of S&P 500 names to use (default: 100)") + args = parser.parse_args() + + returns = load(args.assets) + split = len(returns) // 2 + train, test = returns.head(split), returns.tail(len(returns) - split) + for label, window in (("train", train), ("test", test)): + first, last = window[DATE_COL][0].date(), window[DATE_COL][-1].date() + print(f"{label + ' window':<24}: {first} -> {last} ({len(window)} days)") + + print("\n--- expected, in-sample (cvxcla) ---") + portfolios = frontier_portfolios(train) + + print("\n--- realised, out-of-sample (jquantstats) ---") + data = realised(test, portfolios) + with pl.Config(tbl_rows=-1, tbl_width_chars=100, float_precision=4): + print(data.stats.summary()) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml index a08e6a88..a4f426be 100644 --- a/pyproject.toml +++ b/pyproject.toml @@ -38,6 +38,14 @@ dev = [ "mosek==11.2.3", "marimo==0.24.0", "pandas==3.0.5", + # Portfolio analytics for the notebooks/experiments: turns a frontier + # portfolio's realised return series into stats and plots. Never imported + # from src/, hence dev-only. + "jquantstats==0.11.0", + # jquantstats is polars-native, and polars reads the committed S&P 500 + # parquet snapshot without pulling in a pyarrow engine. Declared because + # experiments/frontier_stats.py imports it directly, not just transitively. + "polars==1.44.1", ] test = [ "pytest>=7.0", @@ -140,6 +148,8 @@ loguru = "loguru" mosek = "mosek" marimo = "marimo" pandas = "pandas" +jquantstats = "jquantstats" +polars = "polars" # bump-my-version only auto-discovers .bumpversion.toml, .bumpversion.cfg, # setup.cfg and pyproject.toml. 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